Alaska’s 18-ticket gubernatorial race: The pundits weigh in

There are 18 different people running to be Alaska’s next governor. Add in their 18 running mates for lieutenant governor, and you’ve got enough people to fill a junior high classroom in the Anchorage School District.

Since Alaska did away with its partisan primary system in a 2020 citizens initiative, voters will have to choose a single favorite from among the 18 tickets on August’s “open” primary ballot. The top four will advance to the November general election.

How to make sense of the enormous slate? Northern Journal wanted to try something different, so we asked a couple of pundits for their short takes — and added our own.

Suzanne Downing founded the conservative Must Read Alaska news site before leaving for her new venture, The Alaska Story. A middle-of-the-road take comes from Jim Lottsfeldt, a veteran Alaska political consultant who’s worked with candidates and campaigns across the political spectrum.

Northern Journal Publisher Nathaniel Herz offers a third perspective; he’s covered gubernatorial, legislative, U.S. Senate and U.S. House races in Alaska since 2014.

This is more opinionating than it is journalism, so take our views with a grain of salt — but Northern Journal’s hope is that you can use the three perspectives on each ticket to inform your own ideas about them. 

Feedback? Reach us at nat[at]northernjournal.com.

Tom Begich (D) / Julia Hnilicka (D)

Suzanne Downing: Begich is the Democratic field's familiar face, an experienced politico and singer-songwriter with deep Anchorage political roots and a reputation for being affable and persistent. He's betting Alaska voters are ready for a progressive turn after eight years of a Republican governor, but he'll have to convince a state that has repeatedly shown skepticism toward expanding government. He is pro-defined pension plans for government workers. And then there's the possible confusion with his nephew, incumbent U.S. Rep. Nick Begich III, who is the family's lone Republican.

Jim Lottsfeldt: Tom Begich is Alaska’s poet troubadour. He loves travel, music and books. He has dabbled in many professions and never really settled into a single groove. However, being a state senator and often negotiating with the governor and the other party taught him that he’d be better than most as the state’s top politician.  He’s a traditional liberal.

Nathaniel Herz: Alaska’s last Democratic gubernatorial candidate, in 2022, got 24% of the vote while incumbent Republican Mike Dunleavy got just over 50%. That Democratic candidate, former longtime state Rep. Les Gara, doesn’t feel like he’s from a very different mold than Begich, who served years as a state senator and is a fairly traditional liberal. I’m skeptical he can build a big enough coalition to gain a majority — but he has shown an ability to work across party lines with Dunleavy.

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) / Zac Johnson (I)

SD: Nobody questions JKT's intelligence or personal kindness and affability. Even political opponents generally describe him as respectful and thoughtful. But he remains firmly on the left side of Alaska politics, with a network of national connections and a policy vision that many conservatives view as imported from somewhere far from Alaska. Like, New York City. And who can forget his COVID Act Now vaccine push? Pepperidge Farm remembers.

JL: JKT is the next generation of Alaskan leaders. He’s disrupting the natural order of center-left politics in the same manner he legislated. He listens actively and is nice to everyone. This campaign will be a test of if he’s willing to play hardball. He’s the best-funded of the bunch ($1.5 million currently); will he use that to climb into a better position? He probably needs to strike soon. Like, yesterday.

NH: Kreiss-Tomkins has raised a ton of money and points to his years as a state representative from a coastal district with plenty of Trump voters as evidence he can build a coalition that goes beyond the Democratic Party. So far, his public appearances seem to be geared toward rallying his potential base of young, liberal Alaskans; we’ll see if they deliver enough votes to get him past the primary.

Click Bishop (R) / Greta Schuerch (I) 

SD: Bishop may be the nicest guy in the race. The former senator rarely makes enemies, and knows state government inside and out. As a former state labor commissioner, his support for returning to defined pensions puts him squarely in the camp of expanding long-term government obligations at a time when Alaska's fiscal future remains uncertain. He's Murkowski with a mustache, a Republican that Democrats could see voting for. In most cases, a lieutenant governor running mate doesn't matter, but his pick of an Alaska Native will draw some rural voters.

JL: Click Bishop is the flip side of JKT.  He’s nice as pie, but he’s more representative of Alaska in the 1960’s and 1970’s than today.  His fundraising is lagging, but he has solid support from insiders who want his predictable and pro-industry/pro-labor influence in the governor’s office.

NH: In a field that was initially loaded with more conservative Republicans, Bishop had a lane as a political moderate — a position he underscored with his pick of a rural independent, Greta Schuerch, as his running mate. But like Suzanne says, the late entries into the race of Bill Walker and Lesil McGuire threaten to water down Bishop’s support. He remains a credible contender to make the top four in the primary and advance to the general — especially with significant spending on his behalf by organized labor.

Dave Bronson (R) / Josh Church (R)

SD: Bronson surfed the Covid policy anger wave into the Anchorage mayor's office and knocked off the city's political establishment. But three years later, many Republicans are still wondering what happened. His tenure was marked by constant conflict with the liberal Assembly, management controversies and bungled opportunities. Nobody doubts he'll fight to get to the final four, but plenty question whether he'll win in November.

JL: Dave Bronson was Anchorage’s Covid mayor. And he was just terrible at the job. He’s got name ID — but it’s largely because he’s viewed as the worst mayor Anchorage has ever endured.

NH: Bronson’s tenure as Anchorage mayor was chaotic — defined more by breaking institutions than building anything. But unlike some of his conservative GOP rivals in the gubernatorial race, he’s making what appears to be a real effort to face critics head-on and has adopted some unusual policies and tactics for a Republican. He’s a kind of wild card in this race that I wouldn’t count out.

Matt Claman (D) / Sarah Skeel (D)

SD: Claman, a trial lawyer, has spent years in public office and has the resume of a serious candidate. The campaign has struggled to generate excitement, money or momentum. In a crowded field, he is kind of the invisible man.

JL: Matt Claman is West Anchorage’s Mr. Rogers. He’s smart, kind and largely without sharp edges except his stubborn belief he’s usually right. This session’s fight with Anchorage Democratic Rep. Andrew Grey over the age of consent was probably due more to a lack of communication between the two than any policy disagreement. The Claman campaign is centrist and suffers because it lacks a motivated base of voters.

NH: Claman, a former Anchorage mayor, seems to be struggling to find a niche between the campaigns of Begich and Kreiss-Tomkins, which are both getting more traction. He’s had a varied political career, including a stint as Anchorage’s mayor after Mark Begich was elected to the U.S. Senate. And he’s shaped legislation as longtime chair of judiciary committees at the Capitol. But don’t bet on him to make the final four.

Adam Crum (R) / Bob Craig (R)

SD: Crum brings executive experience, private-sector credentials and strong support among many Valley Republicans. He may not be setting the race on fire today, but he's one of the few candidates with both government and business experience. Ignore him at your own risk.

JL: Adam Crum is little known despite being a former state revenue commissioner. His base is in the Valley, but he’s competing with a bunch of right-wingers for that same vote. People I trust think Crum may be facing legal consequences for his last-minute actions as revenue commissioner.

NH: Crum distinguished himself as a surprisingly nonpartisan and pragmatic state health commissioner during the coronavirus pandemic. Then, he became Dunleavy’s revenue commissioner and took a political and partisan turn — while also making some investment decisions that have drawn intense criticism from lawmakers and auditors. He’s one of a number of Republicans in the race’s conservative lane, and I don’t see how he differentiates himself enough to advance into the general.

Edna DeVries (R)/ George Hightower (R)

SD: DeVries is widely regarded as gracious, hardworking, conservative and sincere. Her challenge is translating local popularity into statewide recognition. She is aging, too, something that can't be ignored.

JL: Edna DeVries’ best days are a long way behind her. She’s largely a fringe candidate but has run so often for political office that she’s built some name recognition. Her claim to fame is her religious beliefs that she brings into every conversation.

NH: Yeah, Edna DeVries is an octogenarian. But in her correspondence with Northern Journal, she’s more responsive and engaged by email than candidates half her age. She’s owned multiple Christian bookstores and is intensely conservative. In a different world I think that could give her her own lane. But she’s raised barely any money and in spite of her base in the Mat-Su, where she’s the borough mayor, I don’t see her cracking the top four in the primary.

Meda DeWitt (I)/ Christopher Steere (I)

SD: DeWitt was one of the public faces of the effort to recall Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy shortly after his election in 2018. While she presents herself as independent of party labels, many are going to see through that lens and are unlikely to be persuaded that she is not a Democrat, even if she is trying to hide from the brand. She is not a factor in this race.

JL: Meda DeWitt came within a cat’s whisker of getting Mike Dunleavy recalled. Then Covid hit and saved him. She’s a traditional healer, smart and could develop into a potent political leader. My advice to her would have been to go for a state House or Senate seat first. Running for governor feels like a big jump.

NH: DeWitt is a fresh voice in the race and with her running mate is part of an all-Native ticket. She’s done interesting work with The Wilderness Society conservation group, and on the board of Yakutat’s Alaska Native village corporation. But I still see her campaign this time around as more of a stepping stone than an end in itself, and she doesn’t have an obvious political base. 

Matt Heilala (R)/ Jesse Sumner (R)

SD: On paper, Heilala may have one of the most impressive résumés in the race: commercial fisherman, retired physician and MBA holder. He's clearly intelligent and accomplished. The challenge is converting credentials into voter enthusiasm, something that has proven elusive so far. 

JL: Dr. Matt Heilala is on a mission to reduce his net worth. He’s donated more than $1 million to his own campaign without attracting much attention or a base of support.  (Political veterans) Ashley Reed and Art Hackney are advising him, but in the new digital political world, Heilala needs to be relevant. So far, he’s not.

NH: With his piles of cash, a branded RV carrying him to events and a general willingness to answer the phone and talk, Heilala has been a fun and interesting entry into the Republican field — at least for me and for other reporters. He’s not an experienced politician, which he could spin to his advantage, but he’s also fighting to distinguish himself in the conventional conservative lane against numerous other candidates, and I’m not seeing much evidence that he’s built a base or a movement that will propel him into the general election.

Shelley Hughes (R) / Blake Gettys (R)

SD: Hughes remains one of Alaska's best-known conservative legislators and has built a loyal following over the years, but her name ID is still weak. Her campaign has taken some unusual turns, but voters who know her story also know she has endured significant personal loss recently. She's likely to generate more sympathy but not enough votes to get to the final four.

JL: Shelley Hughes has moved through the ranks. She once was a healthcare lobbyist, then switched to state representative. She moved to state Senate and became part of a bloc of Valley senators better known for being pushed into a minority than any legislative accomplishment.   She’s conservative as they come and is quite nice one-on-one — but she’s not likely to survive the primary.

NH: Hughes has been hustling, but like my comments about Heilala above: What’s she doing to differentiate herself from other mainstream conservatives like Crum, Heilala and Bronson? Right now, it doesn’t feel like enough; I expect her campaign to end after the August primary.

Hank Kroll (R)/ Tommy Nicholson (I)

SD: Hank Kroll is back. Again. At some point we have to wonder whether running for governor is a campaign or a hobby. Persistence is admirable, but the political realities are not on his side.

JL: I’ve never heard of him. 

NH: A repeat candidate who won’t crack the top four.

Lesil McGuire (R) / Elizabeth Rexford (I)

SD: McGuire is nestled in the increasingly crowded political center, sharing that lane with candidates like Bill Walker and Click Bishop. Her support for ranked choice voting will appeal to some and alienate others, but she can't get away from that brand. And she has some other issues. Name ID is one and legislative reputation is another: If people remember her name, it's not because she did great things.

JL: Lesil McGuire has served in the state House and state Senate. She was effective in her legislative career and did a good job at prioritizing public safety. She personally and professionally allied with Republican U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski, and that may be a problem. Or a solution. The race is crowded and McGuire needs to get to the top four. Is there a lane for Murkowski voters to push her upwards?

NH: McGuire is charismatic and could bring some new ideas into the race. But she was a last-minute entry and, like the others say, is now competing in the same lane as others who have been in the race for longer or have better name recognition. She’s got a ton of work to do to raise money and boost her profile enough to climb into the top four in the primary.

James Parkin (R) / Ram Greer (D)

SD: A Republican for governor and a Democrat for lieutenant governor? If Alaska politics needed a living symbol of the "uniparty," this ticket may be it. The campaign is unconventional, but unconventional doesn't translate into votes.

JL: I’ve never heard of him.

NH: The multi-partisan ticket is a fun idea. But Parkin has neither raised enough money nor participated in enough events to be a viable candidate.

Destry Payne Sr. (I)/ Cliff Silvers (I)

SD: Payne's campaign promises to return power to Alaskans through a little-known political movement, the new Alaskan Party. But it only has 22 members and he has zero name recognition.

JL: I’ve never heard of him.

NH: A last-minute entry into the race, Payne lacks the experience, cash and support base to be a player in this election. But has a great cowboy name.

Treg Taylor (R) / Candi English (R)

SD: Taylor entered the race with strong conservative credentials and a record as attorney general, but has struggled to generate the momentum many expected. One thing is certain: This campaign comes with plenty of Alaska political backstory. But there is the "Jodi Taylor" problem, which is the hurdle posed by the overbearing spouse.

JL: Treg Taylor is part of the failed legacy of Dunleavy attorneys general. Taylor is not one of the sexual harassers, but his record for losing cases is just as bad as all the rest. Treg himself is likable and he’s blessed with a rich wife, Jodi. Well, that’s a mixed blessing. Most Republican insiders think Jodi is a liability. 

NH: Taylor, a former attorney general for Dunleavy, has long been positioning himself for a gubernatorial run. But in my experience with him, he’s been defensive and combative and is running a surprisingly guarded campaign — refusing to participate in surveys and declining to allow a newspaper reporter to interview his running mate on filing day. I don’t see how this kind of posture allows Taylor to emerge from the fray of mainstream conservatives in the race.

Bill Walker (I)/ Randy Hoffbeck (I)

SD: Walker is asking voters for another look at a governorship that remains one of the most controversial in recent Alaska history. At 75, he's also asking voters whether experience outweighs a desire for generational change. Does he intend to give the gas line back to China and veto the rest of the Permanent Fund dividend? He has a lot of baggage.

JL: Bill Walker is already making headlines. First, with his surprise entry and now with his Permanent Fund plan that is vintage Walker — it’s sensible and a political dead weight. Walker is probably the hardest working person ever to serve as Governor. He does carpentry to relax.  I’m sad to say it but I think he’s had his shot and voters will try something new. 

NH: Walker has lost two gubernatorial races in a row; now, he’s back with another set of unconventional political ideas. I’m skeptical that voters will have a change of heart and return the independent to the governor’s office — but he also hustles and has energy, and presumably enjoys enough name recognition to be a player in the primary, so I’m a little wary of counting him out.

Bernadette Wilson (R)/ Mike Shower (R)

SD: Wilson is the insurgent firebrand of the field. A businesswoman, activist, and relentless campaigner, she has built a following among grassroots conservatives who are tired of cautious and callous politics. Paired with former state Sen. Mike Shower, she may be the ticket most likely to energize the Republican base and attract national conservative attention. May even be a likely Trump endorsement.

JL: Bernadette Wilson is better suited to reality TV than politics. Unfortunately, we now live in a time where those lines are blurred. She has no qualifications for the job besides being shamelessly loud mouthed. Her foray into an actual business — trash removal — left her in collections and debts. Her public arc has been party planner to political consultant to radio host — so, of course, governor is the next logical step, right?!

NH: Wilson is one of the most interesting candidates in the race. She’s clearly generated real grassroots conservative enthusiasm and has shown herself to be a hardworking campaigner and good fundraiser. While she hasn’t held elected office, she’s spent years working in conservative policy and politics and knows the lay of the land and how to run a campaign. I see her as one of the favorites to emerge from the GOP field into the general — where she’ll have to fend off hits on her spotty record in business, including bounced checks written by her trash company.

Michael Gilbert (R)/Timothy Hickel (R)

SD: I got nothin'.

JL: Only interesting thing about this ticket is one of the guys is named “Hickel.”

NH: No campaign website and not names I've seen before.

Correction: There are 18 candidates in the gubernatorial field, not 17, as the story initially said; we initially left out Gilbert and Dean.

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